Mehul's thoughts on stocks & technology

 
 

I used to be an avid Nokia fan till about 3 years back. I knew all the Nokia phones and model numbers by heart, and it was my favourite hobby to identify the phones whenever I saw them. Around that time I was using Nokia 6620, and I was absolutely in love with its design. But eventually, I got a feeling that Nokia had stopped innovating. They had started to come up with run of the mill phones with exact same software. I parted my way with Nokia, and eventually shifted to Sony Ericsson W810, Motorola Q, Treo, Blackberry and Samsung Instinct.

Now, that I needed a phone again, I decided to give Nokia another shot. I went to a store and it didn’t take very long for me to pick Nokia 5130 out of the crowd. It’s one of the phones in the XpressMusic series.

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Nokia XpressMusic 5130
Here's what I really like about this phone:

1. It looks very elegant. It's hip and classy at the same time...if that's actually possible.

2. The music player is mind blowingly awesome. It is dead simple to use, and the in-built speakers are surprisingly good and LOUD. I don't think the walkman series phones like W810 stand any chance, atleast as far as speaker sound quality is concerned. The interface is a whole different story, and I am noti going there.

3. The screen resolution isn't the best ofcourse, but it's satisfactory.

4. I was impressed by the inbuilt Opera mini browser. Haven't used this phone for browsing much, but I have nothing but praise to shower upon the Opera browser!

5. Then some small things like ambient light sensor, bluetooth stereo are always nice to have.

p.s.  I am not comparing this phone to the Treos, Blackberries et all. All I am saying is , it's good to be back in Nokia's world! and this phone most definitely gives a good bang for the buck!

For an exhaustive review, please check GSMArena.
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I'll be travelling a lot for the next couple of days, so will be hopping in and out of here. I'll use any time that i can find to catch up with all the blogs, and may be post a thing or two here.


Till then, take care!

 
 
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Mobile office. Image taken from http://www.iftelecom.com.au


Ok, I am just bad at coming up with catchy names! I try, but well, let’s just leave it at that…

Till early 2007, I was more or less unaccustomed to the sheer awesomeness of web @ mobile devices! Occasionally, I had seen people glued to their blackberries, but their importance in worklife hadn’t dawned upon me. It’s only in summer 2007 that I got my first Treo (and the data plan to go with it) and suddenly a whole new world opened up for me. The whole experience of having information at my fingertips anytime and anywhere I wanted was almost like a divine revelation!

I am not at all exaggerating, that’s exactly how it was! Suddenly, I was reading news, engadget.com etc., and replying to emails while stuck in a traffic jam, or while standing in a line, waiting for a movie to start….pretty much all the time! Both personal and professional productivity got a super boost…I had so much more time to catch up with current events, latest gadgets, financial news etc..

It doesn’t matter if you are working an 8-5 job, or running your own business. It doesn’t matter whether you want to play along or not, mobile technology is changing the whole work culture and dynamics, and it is here to stay! Slowly, more and more employers and businesses are realizing that it’s to their advantage that employees stay connected via Blackberries, treos etc! It’s an investment that’s worth every single penny.

While trying to make a case for this, it’s only fair that I share my experience and how it has changed my work habits and personal attitude. The experience with Treo was an eye opener ofcourse. It didn’t matter where I was, or what I was doing, I had access to all the information whenever I wanted. My boss didn’t have to wait for me to come back from lunch to get answers to questions that would help move the project along. If an urgent meeting was set up for early next morning after I called it a day, I didn’t miss it anymore. A few months later, I moved to a blackberry, and my mobile experience immediately went up a few notches! Now, I got access even to the corporate messenger etc. I was never more approachable and available to people. I could feel the immediate difference in productivity. Having most up to date information all the time gives you a sense of confidence, and in some cases, an edge over the others.

I can’t imagine it being any different for business owners. It’s about having all the information you need to make important decisions available at your fingertips. If you don’t make an effort to reach out to your customers the fastest possible way, someone else for sure will!

Some of the biggest arguments I have heard against this are:

-          I don’t want to be a workaholic

-          If I am not at my desk, I am UNAVAILABLE!

-          Once I am out of office, I am OUT!

-          I am not getting paid for this…

-          Waiting another hour before replying isn’t going to bring the Earth to a halt

I am not saying these points aren’t right…there should be a balance between work and personal life, but this is not about that. I agree, once in a while it does get crazy. I have been there…replied to emails at 10 in the night. Most of the times, it’s just about having the right information at your fingertips whenever you need it. It’s about improving your work efficiency and reaching out to people, teammates, and customers sooner. And lastly, it’s about adapting faster and faster to the changes in schedules, requirements and unexpected incidents.

And I’ll sum it up by just saying that if you are not ready for this…there are thousands of people who are! Employers will find employees who are more available and more adaptable to changing office dynamics, and customers will find better informed (and more available) businesses! If you are absolutely sure that no one else in the world can do your work, or provide services that your businesses does, then go ahead and keep using your Moto Razr! If you aren’t so sure..then I urge you to be more open to this rewarding experience!

I can make the exact same case for Web 2.0, but I’ll leave that for a later time!

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Microsoft has been investing heavily on its Surface product for some time now. Microsoft believes that the product will be embedded in all aspects of life, right from bedroom, kitchen and closet, to bars and restaurants. Right now the price is probably one of the main factors that's preventing Surface from telling what I can do with the flour (lol!, see the video below), but eventually the price is going to come down, or hopefully a lot of scaled down versions will hit the market.



Though, I think talking to the kitchen part in the video above is very unnatural and somewhat creepy, the rest of the ideas are super cool. (Especially, extending the phone's desktop to Surface and pushing data to the Cloud) While, I can think of hundreds of uses and applications, I particularly like the idea of implementing Surface at the restaurants. Consider the scenarios...
Once you get seated, you bring up the menu on Surface and browse through all the options. Selecting an item brings up pictures, ingredients, user rating/reviews and other useful information. To order, you just press the 'order button', and even enter special notes for the Chef. When the Iced Tea starts running low, the waiter automatically gets notified, and you don't have to wait for the waiter to look at you to get more drinks! Once you are done with the food, you could split the check with friends any way you want, and just tap the card on the table to make the payment... So much more efficient. I am sure this will be a big turnoff for a lot of people who prefer the personal touch, and the special treatment at nice cozy restaurants, but this doesn't necessarily have to be an 'either/or' thing. A picture is worth a thousand words, and a cool video still some more, so here's another one showing the implementation in restaurants. Like I said in the beginning, the price has to come down significantly before the main stream deployment even starts!
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There’s no way to know and track the thousands of stocks that trade on Wall Street every day. However, every once in a while you come face to face with a stock that you have been watching from time to time, but it suddenly starts galloping and you are just left staring at it thinking it has already gone out of reach…

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Palm Centro
I first looked at Palm’s stock when Centro was selling like hot cakes in 2008. The phone was launched in 2007 exclusively with Sprint, and it had all the features of Treo and was only half as expensive. At that time, I really thought that the stock will go up (because of Centro’s success), but it turned out that Palm was cannibalizing its profit margin by selling the phone for dirt cheap. With dropping profit margins, aging OS, failed products (Foleo), and tough economic environment, Palm’s stocks rapid decline didn’t come as a surprise. After trading for as high as 17 dollars in October 2007, the stock hit a rock bottom of 1.14 within a year or so.

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Palm Foleo
At that time, 1.14 sounded very cheap, but Palm had too many problems so I decided to stay away from the stock. That is exactly when Palm took the world by surprise. At CES 2009, Palm announced the Palm Pre, a phone based on their brand new webOS featuring improved web 2.0 tools and social networking applications. It is very true that Palm had been trying to sell the next generation OS story to investors and media for quite some time, but after the Foleo debacle, investors didn’t really know how much to trust the company. Personally, I wasn’t expecting much from the company either. At the very maximum, I was expecting a tweaked OS with improved touch screen performance.

It did not take Palm Pre (and the webOS) much time to become the new tech darling, and thanks to the more than positive first impressions, Investors handsomely rewarded Palm, and the stock price steadily climbed up from 2-3 dollars to more than 6-7 dollars.  At that time, it felt like an opportunity missed. When a company from your ‘knowledge backyard’ that you have already written off manages to suddenly become a top contender to the throne, you are just left dumbfounded!

Both Palm and Sprint have been managing the media rather well and keeping information under tight wraps. This combined with the apparent awesomeness of the product has helped push the stock prices to as high as 11.80 as of close of business today. If I had put in about five/six hundred dollars in the stock at that time, I would have been sitting on about five/six thousand dollars by now! That is some serious return on investment!

The stock no doubt would have made a more than perfect short term investment. However, looking at long term, it’s still hard to predict if Palm’s stock will continue the upward climb. The company has some serious debt and liabilities and this is their do or die chance. While I am almost sure about Pre’s (and webOS’s) success, the competition is way too fierce, and a single mistake in the pricing/launching strategy could hamper company’s turnaround efforts. The next few months without doubt will be crucial for both Palm and even Sprint.

PALM is a perfect lesson for me, and will probably keep me motivated to stay on a lookout for opportunities that lurk in the ‘backyard’!

Happy Investing!!
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We are almost halfway through the year, and so far the year has been flooded with run of the mill touch screen phones (and smart phones). I am going to try and avoid writing about them, and instead I’ll try and focus on some of the phones I am looking forward to.

Palm Pre (Sprint): I actually debated and had to struggle somewhat to not mention Iphone at the top spot. While I DON’T think Palm Pre will be the next “Iphone Killer”, the excitement and the press coverage this phone is receiving is amazing. At this point, we sort of have a rough Idea about what the Iphone is going to have (Better CPU, better camera, improved OS and other evolutionary features). While it’s still going to be the coolest phone without any doubt, I am just more excited about the Palm Pre. Palm seems to have worked very hard to build a new OS from scratch, and the WebOS is certainly going to have a few surprises and new features under its belt. June 7 (the rumored date) can’t come soon enough!

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Palm Pre
The wireless charging is truly revolutionary (Though it’s sad that Palm/Sprint might charge a premium for that), The phone is supposed to be a lot more social networking friendly, and is going to offer greatly improved LBS applications

Apple Iphone (AT&T):
 Let’s just face it… Apple knows how to keep innovating! It manages to introduce both revolutionary and evolutionary devices year after year, and rest of the industry just stays busy catching up! I wish June 8th could be declared some sort of a national holiday! Actually, as of this morning, I am a bit disappointed since Steve Jobs won’t be presenting the keynote, but nevertheless, the event is going to be full of excitement.
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Iphone
While Apple already gave an early preview of what the OS 3.0 is going to look like, I am sure all the Apple diehard fans (including me) are hoping that Phil Schiller will bring his magic hat along and pull out a few surprises! I personally would settle for an OLED screen (it’s probably not happening this year), flash support, and apps that cook food for you, earn gazillions of dollars, and let you rule the world! (lol just kidding, maybe I am expecting a bit too much!)

 Lots of Android love (multiple carriers)
 While HTC won the race with G1 last year, multiple vendors including Samsung, LG, Motorola and Sony have announced their plans to launch Android based devices by the end of this year.  Last year, Sprint’s CEO said that Android needed a lot of work. Google actually has been working very hard to improve the OS and introduce a lot of new features. I am excited about Android, because I use Google for everything, and they just seem to know how to integrate their products to make everything extremely simple. So, expect a lot of love from Google this year!
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Blackberry Storm 2 (Verizon?)
RIM’s CEO has announced that a new Blackberry Storm will be available before the end of this year. While Blackberry has been releasing a lot of ‘regular’ devices (which are pretty good too by the way), their second attempt at touch screen phones should be interesting to watch!

Garmin Nuvifone (Carrier unknown)
Ok, to tell you the truth, I am not really excited about this one at all! I just wanted to mention it here because they have been working on it for so long now… I hope they release it while touch screen phones are still in fashion! When they announced the phone in 2008 (or was it 2007), it would have been a pretty cool device, but now it’ll just be another run of the mill touch screen phone. Well, it’ll have a solid GPS, but at this point it’s nothing new!
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Garmin Nuvifone
Apart from all these, there have been way too many rumors about Dell entering the smart phone market, and lately, even Microsoft’s Zune phone has been making some rounds (I just don’t see this one happening!)

Windows 6.5 / 7 based phones didn’t make it to my most anticipated list. It’s an ok OS I guess, but I really don’t think it will have a lot of innovative features! (I didn’t really like their Honeycomb interface either)

So let’s see which phones sell like hot cakes (or Cupcakes, eh?) and which phones fall short of expectations. For me, June 7th and 8th can’t come soon enough!
 
 

When Amazon launched a new model of Kindle last week, it created a lot of buzz on how it’ll revive the newspaper industry which is desperately seeking new areas of revenues. (See here)

In my post last week on Kindle, I mentioned that newspapers really need to work on the content they deliver if they expect to generate any significant revenues:

“The newspaper partnership still needs to be improved. I mean getting the morning edition of the paper on kindle is great, but I don’t want to be stuck with the news for the whole day that gets old in an hour!”

While searching the net, I came across this cool video which showcases the next generation E-ink technology which might just make the newspapers(on Kindle) a little more interesting with short video clips, animated images and more (hey, how about animated Dilbert, huh?). 

If Kindle can manage to offer this technology at an affordable price sometime soon, more readers might jump in the digital wagon feeling rewarded by a whole new level of experience that it might provide. Well, to put it another way, have you watched the movie Harry Potter and observed their newspaper, The Daily Prophet? Ever wished your newspaper had all those interesting animated/video clips? Well, thanks to devices like Amazon Kindle, it might just happen soon!

Roadblocks:

1.       Affordability: The technology certainly looks very promising, but will it be affordable enough? In the end, affordability is one of the main reasons why some technologies click, and others don’t!

2.       Data Limitations: Right now, Sprint provides Kindle the 3G connectivity that it needs for free. Once you start including short video clips etc., the data consumption skyrockets. Will Amazon/Sprint be able to support the huge increase in data needs? (especially for free?)

3.     Interactive Content: Its true…a picture is worth a thousand words, and a short video clip even more! But, will newspapers be able to provide interesting interactive material for articles that manages to engage the readers and enhance their newspaper reading experience?


FYI, I took a class under the Professor who is featured in the video above ( Prof. David Janes). Awesome, right?

Another FYI, If you were spread betting or investingin Amazon on the news regarding Kindle, you likely made out very well.
 
 

Is it really a surprise that T-mobile wins best customer service awards, year after year?

I came across this on engadget.. Recently a few Iphone owners were experiencing minor problems on T-mobile. T-mobile didn't really have to do anything because they don't officially support the phone in US. However, they went out of their way to resolve the problem and even gave customer's free service for 1 whole month! Kudos to T-mobile! (See here: http://www.engadget.com/2009/05/09/t-mobile-provides-support-good-vibes-to-its-iphone-using-client/)

T-mobile won the JD Power award for best customer service across Telecom providers earlier this year. They have been known for best customer service for quite some time. And they seem to be trying pretty hard to mantain that, which is really good!
(http://www.boygeniusreport.com/2009/02/04/t-mobile-tops-jd-power-customer-service-rankings-yet-again/)

 
 

Most of the things that happened last year in the financial markets will probably be remembered for quite some time to come. Apart from the housing crises and global economic meltdown, the fluctuations in the Oil prices will take quite a prominent position as well. After starting the year (2008) at around 80 dollars, oil prices maintained their steady climb to reach up to as high as 147 dollars, and consequently broke whatever vain attempts the economy made to recover midyear. The rebate that people received from the government mostly just vanished into thin air! That is when the economy threw in the towel, and the conditions deteriorated very rapidly! The unemployment numbers started skyrocketing, and people just couldn’t afford travelling as much with gas prices hovering around 4 dollars. As a result, the demand for oil suddenly went south, and the oil prices came down much faster than they had gone up, touching a low of about 30 dollars! 


This year, started with about an average price of 41 dollars, and today Oil closed at 58 dollars! Just considering 2009, that’s already a more than healthy return! (~35%). However, if you had gotten into the market when the price was 30 dollars, you would have almost doubled your money by now. Now, the big question is, will this rally continue? Is it a good time to enter the market? And how high will the prices go?

Graph taken from www.opec.org


I don’t think there’s a simple answer or one interpretation for these questions. If in fact there was one, everyone would have been extremely rich by now! Last year was different in many ways. As the stock market in general tanked, investors tried to look up at other arenas where they could still manage to get a respectable return on their investments. As a result the climb in the oil prices was partly driven by speculation and greed. This year, it’s slightly different. The stock market seems to be holding on its own, and is making a decent attempt to recover now. So may be the focus on the oil prices won’t be as stern as it was last year?

On the other hand, the recovering economy will need more and more fuel for its growth and as the unemployment numbers stabilize (and eventually start declining) more people might decide to hit the roads to enjoy the travel season that’s already here on the doorsteps.  Will the oil prices rise as much as they did last year? I highly doubt it (but then really anything is possible!). Nevertheless, oil is still very modestly priced, and should go up further unless something very drastic and unexpected happens.

If you are not very keen on investing in commodities directly, may I suggest some fallen angels in the oil sector like Stone Energy Corp. (NYSE: SGY)? Most of the Oil stocks are directly related to the Oil price. If it goes up, they go up as well. For example, SGY varied between 1.55 and 73.96 in the last year alone, roughly corresponding to the drastic variation in the Oil prices last year. This year, it’s already off its lows, and is currently trading at around 7.67.  If the oil prices continue their climb, may be this stock will double or even triple? With a market cap of just 306 million at the moment, I don’t know whether it’s advisable to invest a lot of money into it (unless you have a huge appetite for risk). However, the company has been around for quite some time, and is not likely to disappear overnight.  

I am by no means an expert on oil prices, so please consider this just a simple analysis of the demand and supply principles as they prevail in a free market. One you mix these principles with a flavor of speculation and economic uncertainty, you get something that’s very hard to predict. So, happy investing!

Reference:
http://money.cnn.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_petroleum
http://www.opec.org/Home/basket.aspx


 
 

Netbooks seem to be the hottest pie in the market, and all the major players are cringing to get a piece of the market share. Though it’s currently dominated by Windows and Linux, several new players have announced the plans to launch their own version of netbooks and the OS very soon.

The netbook market was born when Asus released the first netbook in 2007 and it was a huge success right out of the door selling more than 1 million units by the end of 2007. While the Asus netbooks were mainly Linux based and caught Microsoft off the guard, Microsoft strategized quickly, and thanks to their efforts, more than 90% of Netbooks now being sold operate on Windows! However, this might soon change too. Since, the rumor mill is working with full speed these days, and “people familiar with the matter” are slipping up a lot of information, please take all this with a pinch of salt.

News sites and blogs have reported that Android based netbook is in the works and several major players including Dell, HP, Acer and HTC are working on bringing one out. Reports are that Palm too is going to revive its Foleo product (that was never launched) with WebOS, and try to capture a share of the market for itself.

The only company to denounce the netbooks so publically is Apple. However, that hasn’t stopped the analysts from predicting that Apple still might be working on one (or some similar product like a bigger Ipod Touch etc.).

There is another trend that’s quickly gaining a lot of popularity. Telecom service providers faced with the near saturation in mobile market, are luring customers with great incentives and subsidies for netbooks, in an effort to generate additional data revenue.

No matter which companies launch their products and which don’t, one thing is for sure… This holiday season, the market will be flooded with a variety of netbooks, and customers will have a lot more to choose from!

Which OS would you like to see in your netbook
Windows XP/7
Linux(Ubuntu etc.)
Android
WebOS
I don't like Netbooks
ugg boots

Reference:
http://www.itwire.com/content/view/22362/53/
http://www.itworld.com/channel/67594/rumors-abound-android-netbooks
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2009/05/01/palm-will-foleo-be-revived-as-a-netbook/
http://www.engadget.com/2009/05/07/htc-working-on-an-android-netbook-for-t-mobile/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/pda/2009/may/01/apple-microsoft


 

    Mehul Jain

    Financial market & technology enthusiast

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